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Market analysis15 min read

Energy market analysis Sept. 10, 2025

EU swaps Russian gas for US and Norwegian offerings

“The EU will further increase its purchases of U.S. oil, natural gas and coal, with trade rising from about $75 billion in 2024 to $250 billion a year over the next three years.”- Reuters

The European Union recently signed an import deal to purchase $750 billion in LNG, oil and nuclear fuels from America by 2028. The deal, announced on July 27 by Trump and von der Leyen, is part of a broader trade package under which the EU will accept a 15% unilateral U.S. tariff on most exports to the Americas and will also commit to $600 billion of investment in the Americas.

The EU has largely reduced its dependence on Russian energy . Russia accounted for 45% of EU gas imports before the invasion of Ukraine, with 150.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021. By 2024, this share has dropped to 51.7 bcm, still accounting for only 19% of imports. The visual below from Statista shows this development.

The EU has been relying more on other exporters to cover the 98.5 bcm deficit. Norway supplied 91.1 bcm last year, accounting for 33.4% of the EU’s total imports. U.S. gas supplies increased 139% over the same period to 45.1 bcm, or 16.5% of the total. Other major partners include Algeria (39.2 bcm), Qatar 11.8 bcm), Azerbaijan (11.7 bcm) and Britain (11.7 bcm). Despite these shifts, total EU gas imports in 2024 were still 61.4 bcm lower than in 2021.