ETS2 moves to 2028, CBAM gets serious
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Europe is putting a price on CO₂ in two new places. ETS2 prices emissions from fuels used in buildings, road transport and small industry; CBAM prices the CO₂ embedded in imported basic goods. The first has been delayed by a year, the second has applied since January and will start costing money in 2027.
ETS2 starts a year later, in 2028
ETS2 will only become fully operational in 2028, a year later than planned. The Council gave final approval to the delay on 5 March 2026, as part of the amendment to the European Climate Law. ETS2 is a separate emissions trading system alongside the existing EU ETS and works upstream: it is not you as the end user but your fuel supplier who monitors emissions and surrenders allowances. Suppliers already report today; this year they submitted a verified emissions report for the first time. From 2028 the carbon price will feed through into what you pay for gas, diesel and petrol, unless you are already covered by the existing EU ETS.
What ETS2 will cost is still an estimate
How much ETS2 will add to your energy bill is not yet fixed. According to the Dutch Emissions Authority (NEa), based on a European Commission estimate at €48 per tonne of CO₂ in 2030, it comes to about 10 cents per m³ of natural gas, 13 cents per litre of diesel and 11 cents per litre of petrol. The actual price will be set at auction. To dampen spikes, extra allowances are released from a reserve during the first two years of ETS2 (up to and including 2029) if the price stays above €45 per tonne for two consecutive months, in 2020 prices. On 9 October 2026 the Council gave final approval to raising that release from 20 million to 40 million allowances and to keeping the reserve after 2030. In 2028, 30% more allowances will also be auctioned to get the market going. For comparison: in the existing EU ETS, an allowance cost €87.04 per tonne at the auction of 13 October 2026.
ETS2: estimated extra cost per unit of fuel at €48 per tonne of CO₂
| Fuel | Unit | Estimated extra cost |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | per m³ | 10 ct |
| Diesel | per litre | 13 ct |
| Petrol | per litre | 11 ct |
CBAM has applied to importers since January
Since 1 January 2026, the CO₂ embedded in certain imported basic goods has counted for CBAM; you buy the certificates for it from February 2027. CBAM, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, covers iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. Anyone importing more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods a year must be an authorised CBAM declarant; there is no threshold for electricity and hydrogen. Since 1 April 2026, you may no longer import more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods without authorisation, unless you applied by 31 March 2026 and no decision has yet been taken. Otherwise Dutch customs hold the goods. The declaration for a given year is due by 30 September of the following year, for the first time in 2027.
Timeline for ETS2 and CBAM, 2026 to 2028
| When | Scheme | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2026 | CBAM | Definitive phase starts. Anyone importing more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods a year needs authorised CBAM declarant status. |
| 5 March 2026 | ETS2 | The Council gives final approval to the amended EU climate law: ETS2 starts one year later, in 2028. |
| After 31 March 2026 | CBAM | Above 50 tonnes you may no longer import CBAM goods without authorisation, unless you applied by 31 March and no decision has yet been taken. Otherwise customs hold the goods. |
| February 2027 | CBAM | Sales of CBAM certificates on the central platform begin. |
| From 2027 | CBAM | Each quarter, certificates for at least 50% of embedded emissions must be held on the account. |
| 30 September 2027 | CBAM | Deadline for the first annual CBAM declaration, covering imports in 2026. |
| 2028 | ETS2 | ETS2 fully operational. Fuel suppliers must surrender allowances for 2028; 30% extra volume is auctioned for 2028. |
From 2027 you buy certificates
From February 2027 you buy CBAM certificates on a central European platform. One certificate covers one tonne of CO₂ and its price follows the EU ETS auction price. In 2026 the Commission calculates a quarterly price: in the third quarter it was €82.32. From 2027 it publishes a weekly price. You must then hold certificates for at least half of your embedded emissions on your account each quarter. Anyone who surrenders too few certificates pays a penalty of €100 per missing certificate, plus indexation.
Price of a CBAM certificate per quarter in 2026
Show the figures
| CBAM certificate | |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | €75.36 |
| Q2 2026 | €75.28 |
| Q3 2026 | €82.32 |
What does this mean for you?
- Do you use natural gas for heating or fuel for transport, and are you outside the existing EU ETS? Then from 2028 you will face a carbon price through your supplier. Ask how it will be passed on when you sign new contracts.
- Treat the estimate of about 10 cents per m³ of gas as an order of magnitude, not a fixed price.
- Do you import steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers or hydrogen from outside the EU? Check whether you exceed 50 tonnes a year and whether you are authorised as a CBAM declarant.
- Ask your non-EU suppliers for emissions data per product. That data determines how many certificates you need.
- Put 30 September 2027 in your diary: that is the deadline for the first annual CBAM declaration.
Sources: European Commission (ETS2, updated 2 September 2026; CBAM and price of CBAM certificates, accessed 14 October 2026), Council of the EU (5 March 2026 and 9 October 2026), Dutch Emissions Authority (accessed 14 October 2026), EEX (auction of 13 October 2026).
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