The EU ban on Russian gas: what it means for your gas price in 2027

The EU has decided that no Russian gas will enter the EU from 30 September 2027, or from 1 November 2027 in a member state at risk of missing its storage target. This is no longer a proposal but a regulation with dates set in law, with an emergency brake. For Dutch businesses, what matters most is how it affects supply on the European gas market, where your gas price is also set.

What Brussels has decided, and when

The EU is phasing out Russian gas imports step by step, with the final step in autumn 2027. The Council gave final approval to Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on 26 January 2026. The import ban has applied since 18 March 2026, with transition periods for existing contracts. Russian LNG under long-term contracts stops on 1 January 2027, Russian pipeline gas on 30 September 2027. If a member state is at risk of missing its storage target for 2027, the Commission can move that date to 1 November 2027 for that member state through an implementing decision. Member states had to submit a plan to diversify their supply by 1 March 2026. There is an emergency brake: if a gas supply emergency is formally declared, the European Commission can suspend the ban for the affected member states for up to four weeks at a time, and extend the suspension for as long as the emergency lasts.

Why it affects you, even without Russian gas

You buy gas on a European market, and supply is disappearing from that market. According to a Council estimate, Russian gas still made up 13% of EU imports in 2025, worth more than €15 billion a year. That volume has to come from other sources. The price on the TTF, the Dutch wholesale gas market, is set by European supply and demand together. How much the ban affects the price depends on what replaces it, and that is not known in advance. What is clear is that this winter starts tighter than the last. On 12 October 2026, Dutch gas storage was 62.96% full, against 71.94% a year earlier. EU storage stood at 73.94% (provisional figure), against 83.15%. European storage was already low at the end of 2025: 62% according to ACER, 10 percentage points less than a year earlier.

What replaced it: more LNG

In 2025, liquefied natural gas (LNG) more than made up for the loss of Russian pipeline gas. According to ACER, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, LNG supply rose by 356 TWh in 2025, while Russian pipeline gas fell by 162 TWh after transit through Ukraine ended. That shift has a downside. According to ACER (March 2026), the United States supplies more than half of the EU's LNG and 27% of all its gas. ACER points to the risk of price volatility and recommends diversifying supply further. At the same time, ACER expects around 250 TWh a month of new global LNG supply towards 2030, roughly twice the EU's current LNG imports. One caveat: ACER looks at 2025. Developments on the energy market in 2026 are not yet reflected in these figures.

What does this mean for you?

• When buying gas for 2027, assume the last Russian flows will stop by law during that year. It is a decision with dates set in law, not a proposal.
• Check which part of your 2027 contract price is fixed and which part moves with the TTF. That determines how exposed you are to changes in supply.
• Bear in mind that Europe relies heavily on the United States and the global market for LNG. According to ACER, this makes the European market more exposed to price volatility.
• Follow gas storage levels and ACER's reports. They show how tight or loose the market is before you buy.
• Put 1 January and 30 September 2027 in your planning. On those dates imports of the last Russian LNG and pipeline gas into the EU stop; in a member state at risk of missing its storage target, pipeline gas may continue until 1 November 2027.

Sources: Council of the EU (26 January 2026), EUR-Lex (Regulation (EU) 2026/261, Official Journal 2 February 2026), ACER (Key developments in European electricity and gas markets, 16 March 2026), GIE AGSI+ (gas day 12 October 2026).